Scenario Analysis

The most common approach to scenario analysis involves developing three different scenarios to cover a broad range of possible future developments. Here is a brief definition.

Best-Case Scenario: Optimistic Outcome

The best-case scenario is the most optimistic forecast, in which everything goes according to plan or even better than expected.

Base-Case Scenario: Realistic Outcome

The baseline scenario is the most realistic and likely outcome. It corresponds to a “business-as-usual” approach, in which assumptions regarding scope, resources, and timeline align with past results or experience.

Worst-Case Scenario: Pessimistic Outcome

The worst-case scenario represents the most pessimistic outcome, in which everything goes wrong and the project faces significant changes. It assumes that everything will go contrary to expectations, for example due to poor collaboration, increasing shortcomings or operational inefficiencies.